The Evolving Virus Why The Avian Flu Has Not Made A Huge Impact On Humans
August 29th, 2008

When looking at the big picture, the Bird flu is still considered to be very rare and the resulting deaths have been small. In addition, all of the people who have died from the infection have had direct contact with the infected birds. Furthermore, there have been very few cases where the virus has been passed from human to human and has had very little impact on humans.

Since 2003 151 people have died worldwide from this virus; and though tragic this is not a large death count, as a comparison, between 33,000 and 36,000 people die each year in the United States alone from complications caused by other kinds of flu. Notably, the amount of deaths reported due to the avian flu is miniscule compared to the statistics surrounding “regular” flu.

Another reason why the avian flu has not had a huge impact on humans is because even if the H5N1 strain of avian flu is found in the United States, it would not be immediate cause for alarm when it comes to human health. Right now the virus is not easily transmitted from birds to humans or from one human being to another. However, there is a concern is that the virus could mutate into a form that is more dangerous to humans, but currently nosuch mutation has been detected.

Also, most agree the avian flu virus is not likely to change very quickly into a form that it can spread quickly from person to person, potentially igniting a pandemic. Acquiring this ability will require a series of genetic changes, which could make the virus less powerful.

In April of 2006 the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) released a statement in which they announced that the avian flu will not be the next pandemic, and is likely to have far less of an impact on humans than previously thought. The logic behind this outlook is though the disease has killed an enormous amount of birds, it has killed only about 100 people out of about 200 sickened worldwide. The victims were in intense, daily contact with sick flocks, often sharing the same living space. Only two people have ever reported becoming infected from person-to-person contact. The CDC advises that it is likely that this virus may never mutate to a form that could spread easily in humans. They did, however, encourage the continued research for a vaccine and supported the development of preparedness plans worldwide.

In addition, the impact the bird flu would have on human in the United States is likely to be less intense than it is elsewhere. According to the US governments top infectious-disease officials the spread of avian flu to the United States probably would not have the same impact it has had in less developed countries. This is because the surveillance in the United States is going to be very intense. American authorities recently unveiled a surveillance plan that includes systematic monitoring of wild birds. They expect to collect 75,000 to 100,000 samples for testing this year, mostly on the West Coast and in Alaska.

American poultry farmers keep birds isolated, reducing the potential for them to have contact with wild birds. In addition, Americans generally have less contact with poultry or their droppings. Backyard poultry is far less common in the United States than in many of the countries battling avian flu, such as Indonesia.

The biggest impact the avian flu is likely to have on humans is an economic one. Fears of infection, whether justified or not, may have a big impact on sectors such as retail spending and tourism as people opt to stay at home. Scared consumers might avoid shopping malls, restaurants and other public places.

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