High On Hybrids - Forecasting Sales Trends On Hybrids
January 7th, 2009

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When analyzing sales trends on hybrids, there is no doubt opinions are mixed. Some of the most educated analysts are disagreeing about the forecast on hybrids. There is a deadlock between the experts, with each side unwilling to budge. We can wait for the results or make up our own minds. But in the meantime however, knowing how each side feels about the forecast can help the public form their own opinion on the matter.

Some researchers feel that the main variable in the trend of car sales is the rising prices of gasoline. While most consumers are complaining about their gas guzzling cars and sport utility vehicles, it is questionable whether car sales will be affected by the high prices. There is a group of experts that believe that even though gas prices are higher than ever, they are still not high enough to influence car sales substantially. They argue that consumers love their large vehicles so much that although they are complaining, they will still continue to drive them and purchase more like them. They estimate gas prices would have to increase to prices above $4 for there to be a substantial effect on the sales of hybrids.

Other experts however reveal that their studies show that at least one in six buyers have changed their minds about planned vehicle purchases due to rising gasoline prices. These studies suggest that the sales of vehicles that require less gasoline will raise at least enough to mimic this study’s findings. The experts on this side of the argument think consumers are most likely motivated to purchase hybrids by gasoline prices and are acting logically.

Manufacturers are likely to agree with those thinking hybrid sales will increase this year. The main determining factor for manufacturers is the fact that there are waiting lists already for new hybrid vehicles. The Toyota Prius and the Honda Civic hybrids are among some of the most popular and have extensive waiting lists. With the addition of several sports utility models to the list of hybrids available, there is no doubt in the minds of the manufacturers that hybrid sales are destined to rise. Some manufacturers have even been so bold to predict sales doubling.

The fact is that at this time however, trucks are still selling much better than cars. Hybrid models of sports utility vehicles and truck models will have to completely blow everything else out of the water to even catch up with regular truck sales. So far there has been no evidence this will happen.

Researchers do agree however that each year there will be increases in the sales of hybrids. The argument is not over whether or not there will be increases really, but about how much of an increase will be present. Some researchers feel with incentives being offered to consumers that buy hybrids, there is more expectation of an increase in sales. With more states offering free parking and tax incentives for hybrid owners, the appeal for hybrid purchases are greater than ever.

Another factor swaying sales is the passage of “clean-air” laws in many states. These laws will turn consumers to truck alternatives, whether they like it or not. Last year hybrids only accounted for 0.5 percent of the market, however most experts are forecasting that by 2012 they will account for at least 3.5 percent of the market.

Most of this change is expected to come from the West Coast of the United States. The West Coast tends to be more aware and involved in environment issues than other areas, as a whole. Therefore, it is likely that most of the increases will come from consumers in this area. The increase is likely due to the effort by government to focus on the benefits of hybrid vehicles.

With more hybrid alternatives being offered to today’s consumer, it is only logical to think hybrid sales will increase moderately. Not taking gas prices into consideration, it is likely the increase in environmental education is having an impact on many consumers. If a consumer can feel great about a vehicle that saves them money and is sensitive to the environment, they are more likely to buy it. If the government is also offering tax and parking incentives, they will definitely buy it

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